Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc487…ee54 sports 34 markets active 8d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-2%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$69
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$76
other 33% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 29 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 21% -12.9%
≤90d 34 -2.8% -12.1% 47% 18% -12.3%
all 34 -2.8% -12.1% 47% 18% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 18% -12.3%
10% -20.5% 12% -20.7%
15% -28.2% 6% -28.4%
20% -35.2% 6% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage42d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$5 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$4 -22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $201 −$49 -24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$5 -23%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $20 +$12 +58%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $180 +$6 +3%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$13 -12%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $221 −$6 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$20 -25%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $181 +$51 +28%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $110 +$2 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$17 -17%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $101 −$22 -22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $76 −$16 -21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$5 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $76 −$10 -13%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $51 +$25 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $76 −$14 -18%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $126 −$53 -42%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $152 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 63¢ $15 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 38¢ $16 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $16 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 70¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 68¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 70¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $16 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $16 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $20 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $20 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 58¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records