Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc489…72ff politics 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$928 (-1%) realized −$929 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$841per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days+$34
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$69
other 35% −$69
sports 7% −$811
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +1.1% -8.6% 15% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 5% -10.4%
all 122 -2.3% -11.6% 7% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -10.4%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 5% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,019) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$929
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage91d
Avg bet$841
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $321 $322 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,386 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $648 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $741 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $988 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $249 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $362 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $2,231 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $662 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $58 +$69 +119%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $2,812 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $27 +$18 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $24 +$15 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $551 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $552 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $570 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $571 6h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 8h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 11h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $494 32h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $495 35h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $542 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $543 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $602 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $603 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $599 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $600 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $321 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $773 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $773 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $647 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $648 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $740 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $741 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $740 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $741 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $821 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $823 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.86 · official $321.86 (match) · 390 history records