Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48c…044c sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-6%) realized +$14 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$21
sports 30% −$68
world 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 45% -14.3%
≤30d 11 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 45% -14.3%
≤90d 11 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 45% -14.3%
all 12 -24.5% -31.7% 42% 42% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 42% -17.1%
10% -38.2% 33% -25.0%
15% -44.2% 17% -32.3%
20% -49.7% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage127d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 +$12 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $35 −$33 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$14 -30%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$10 -44%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$5 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$46 -74%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$16 -14%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 +$16 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +21%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $58 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $58 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $48 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $16 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $62 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 39h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 33¢ $43 39h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 34¢ $11 39h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $38 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $62 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $51 43h
Will the US strike Iran next? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 26 history records