Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48d…2b6e world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%22W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$20
other 28% −$1
sports 22% −$8
politics 18% −$1
economics 4% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 17% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 63 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 2% -10.2%
all 69 -5.4% -14.4% 32% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 1% -10.6%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 47
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage538d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 76¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $36 −$7 -18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $33 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $52 −$11 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $87 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $36 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $149 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $49 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $76 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $8 32m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 32m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $27 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $26 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $26 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $16 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $11 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $27 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $4 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $10 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.05 · official $11.25 (match) · 325 history records