Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48d…8a40 other 1158 markets active 1h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$841 (-2%) realized −$836 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate77%890W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$614
14 days−$595
30 days−$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$291
sports 23% −$674
crypto 18% −$34
world 0% +$56
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 4% -17.5%
≤30d 79 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 5% -16.9%
≤90d 79 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 5% -16.9%
all 1156 -1.8% -11.1% 77% 36% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 36% -11.4%
10% -19.6% 21% -19.9%
15% -27.4% 14% -27.6%
20% -34.5% 9% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$836
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses890 / 266
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1156 / 1158
History coverage327d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Türkiye 98¢ 95¢ $197 $191 −$6 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $199 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $94 −$93 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 +$4 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $182 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $56 +$4 +7%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $208 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +18%
Spread: United States (-4.5) Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $51 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $55 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $102 +$8 +8%
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 19 $98 +$2 +3%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $99 $0 -0%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 18 $248 +$2 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $18 +$2 +10%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $129 +$6 +5%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $17 +$1 +6%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $180 +$1 +1%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $110 +$6 +5%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $18 +$2 +8%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $108 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $85 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $23 +$2 +10%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $37 +$3 +7%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $179 +$1 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $197 +$5 +3%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $100 −$1 -0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$4 -4%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $8 44m
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 98¢ $197 50m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $204 57m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 74¢ $90 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $86 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $167 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $82 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $100 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2 5h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Morocco 99¢ $40 5h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Morocco 99¢ $168 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $56 5h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $52 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $8 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $51 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $19 11h
Spread: United States (-4.5) BUY Australia 98¢ $196 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $29 26h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) SELL Mexico 98¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $42 26h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) SELL Mexico 98¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $55 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.29 · official $199.29 (match) · 3123 history records