Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc48e…9bb7 crypto 689 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 158d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$447 (+0%) realized +$224 · open +$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%671W / 8L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$91
sports 7% +$72
world 2% +$108
tech 0% +$18
politics 0% +$103
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 679 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$116 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$7,537
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$223
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses671 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)679 / 689
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$549
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $1,510 $1,613 +$103 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,011 $1,100 +$88 (+9%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,086 $1,091 +$5 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $998 $1,003 +$6 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $995 $997 +$2 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $860 $865 +$5 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $468 $498 +$29 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $192 $193 +$1 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $74 $58 −$16 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 22 $1,992 +$6 +0%
Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-24.5) Apr 28 $51 $0 +0%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers Apr 28 $500 $0 +0%
Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribe Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Mercer Bears Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 177.5 Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Mercer Bears (-2.5) Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Mar 08 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 11PM ET Mar 08 $174 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 11PM ET Mar 08 $1,762 +$2 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 08 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 08 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 08 $60 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $140 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $150 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $160 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $1,246 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 08 $145 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9PM ET Mar 08 $399 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 9PM ET Mar 08 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9PM ET Mar 08 $661 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9PM ET Mar 08 $1,998 +$2 +0%
76ers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5 Mar 08 $216 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8PM ET Mar 08 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Spread: Baylor Bears (-12.5) Mar 08 $135 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 08 $20 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 08 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 08 $14 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 141.5 Mar 08 $305 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 08 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 08 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Spread: Florida Gators (-5.5) Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Maine Black Bears vs. NJIT Highlanders Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-7.5) Mar 08 $66 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 08 $420 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 08 $420 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 08 $624 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 08 $116 $0 +0%
Spread: UIC Flames (-5.5) Mar 08 $40 $0 +0%
Drake Bulldogs vs. UIC Flames: O/U 141.5 Mar 08 $150 $0 +0%
Drake Bulldogs vs. UIC Flames: O/U 140.5 Mar 08 $193 $0 +0%
Drake Bulldogs vs. UIC Flames Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Northeastern Huskies vs. Drexel Dragons Mar 08 $500 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $435 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $31 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $61 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $75 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 7h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $53 12h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $64 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $351 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,998 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $165 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $823 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $11 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $860 35h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $995 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,536.56 · official $7,539.91 (match) · 3500 history records