Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48e…0ebe other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$694 (-44%) realized −$646 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$693
7 days−$602
14 days−$647
30 days−$647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$646
sports 7% −$4
crypto 3% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -42.1% -47.6% 30% 30% -68.5%
≤30d 24 -44.5% -49.8% 29% 29% -70.0%
≤90d 24 -44.5% -49.8% 29% 29% -70.0%
all 24 -44.5% -49.8% 29% 29% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 29% -70.0%
10% -54.6% 29% -72.8%
15% -59.0% 29% -75.5%
20% -63.0% 17% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$45 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized−$646
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage288d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 69¢ $98 $90 −$8 (-8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 17¢ 14¢ $51 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Maduro out in 2025? Jun 15 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $47 −$45 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $35 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 33¢ $10 18h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $52 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $31 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 23h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 38h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $0 38h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $4 38h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $0 38h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $0 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 39h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt $3 42h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 44h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $5 47h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $6 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $53 2d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.98 · official $551.00 (match) · 68 history records