Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc48f…be1c crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+2%) realized +$43 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%88W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$28
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$59
other 26% −$14
sports 19% +$76
finance 1% −$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +2.0% -7.8% 53% 40% -10.1%
≤30d 164 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 41% -9.0%
≤90d 169 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 40% -9.2%
all 169 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 40% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 40% -9.2%
10% -17.6% 27% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 17% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses88 / 81
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage67d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$71 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$13 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $13 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.09 · official $13.09 (match) · 413 history records