Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc48f…e8b1
other · 193 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$962 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$961 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$186
Realized+$961
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses24 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
Avg bet$1,283
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 192 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$211
14 days−$260
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $186 $186 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,306 −$6 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $8,008 −$8 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,426 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $7,794 −$8 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,290 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $2,130 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,866 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,946 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,507 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,473 −$6 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $5,703 −$6 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $75 +$43 +57%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,771 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,550 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $3,084 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,808 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $318 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $220 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $665 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,394 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $284 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $5,075 −$6 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $333 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,161 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,111 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,233 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,736 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $518 −$1 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $73 +$63 +86%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$478
politics 35% −$113
sports 12% +$1,579
culture 3% −$11
economics 2% −$9
world 1% −$5
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,497 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,499 5h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,462 24h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,464 26h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,320 27h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,321 29h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,424 46h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,426 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,253 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,102 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,104 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 99¢ $186 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,546 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,549 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,636 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,530 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,532 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,398 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,400 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $85 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 49¢ $77 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,242 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,243 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $701 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.4% -22.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 72 -6.5% -15.4% 6% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 139 -9.9% -18.5% 6% 4% -9.3%
all 192 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -9.2%
10% -18.8% 9% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 8% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.21 · official $186.21 (match) · 688 history records