Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc490…0558 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$459 (-14%) realized −$458 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$156
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$159
sports 36% −$258
economics 9% −$295
politics 8% +$24
crypto 5% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.8% +7.5% 80% 73% +1.7%
≤30d 15 +18.8% +7.5% 80% 73% +1.7%
≤90d 15 +18.8% +7.5% 80% 73% +1.7%
all 23 +7.9% -2.4% 78% 61% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 61% -20.3%
10% -11.7% 39% -28.0%
15% -20.2% 26% -34.9%
20% -28.1% 17% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$182 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$458
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage315d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $151 +$38 +25%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $111 −$24 -22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$134 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 +$10 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $295 −$295 -100%
LSU vs. Clemson Aug 31 $652 −$389 -60%
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Saturday August 30? Aug 31 $222 +$15 +7%
Alabama vs. Florida State Aug 30 $202 +$60 +30%
Auburn vs. Baylor Aug 30 $204 +$18 +9%
Padres vs. Mariners Aug 27 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 27 $144 +$6 +4%
Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election? Aug 18 $127 +$18 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $62 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 63¢ $87 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $111 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $99 6d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $186 290d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 290d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 290d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 290d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 290d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 290d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.99 · official $98.99 (match) · 70 history records