Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc494…543c sports 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$288 (-1%) realized −$303 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%94W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$201
14 days+$201
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$751
other 12% −$16
crypto 2% −$83
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.8% +6.6% 64% 64% +28.2%
≤30d 11 +17.8% +6.6% 64% 64% +28.2%
≤90d 138 +7.9% -2.4% 38% 36% -10.5%
all 251 +4.4% -5.5% 37% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 34% -12.0%
10% -14.5% 30% -20.5%
15% -22.8% 27% -28.1%
20% -30.4% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$30 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$303
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses94 / 157
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 253
History coverage159d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 43¢ 50¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$29 +59%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $52 +$33 +63%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $64 +$93 +145%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $24 −$1 -5%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $23 −$22 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $124 +$21 +17%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 +$4 +114%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $78 +$24 +31%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 22 $160 −$86 -54%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 22 $303 −$138 -46%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Apr 21 $10 +$10 +95%
Madrid Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Venus Williams Apr 21 $4 $0 -3%
Rome: Dan Added vs Arthur Fery Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Rome: Andrea Vavassori vs Maxim Mrva Apr 21 $5 +$10 +200%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Henrique Rocha Apr 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $60 +$48 +79%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $89 +$23 +26%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $358 −$106 -30%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $40 +$68 +170%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Apr 21 $205 −$202 -98%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 21 $40 +$52 +131%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $45 +$57 +127%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 21 $83 +$85 +102%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski Apr 20 $120 +$9 +8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Apr 20 $88 +$97 +111%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Apr 20 $60 −$54 -90%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $45 −$28 -61%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Apr 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $79 +$29 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 20 $55 +$53 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Apr 20 $35 −$2 -5%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $15 −$6 -37%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $40 −$8 -20%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $55 +$38 +69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 19 $141 −$13 -9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 19 $20 −$13 -67%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 19 $296 −$132 -44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 19 $220 −$162 -74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 19 $210 −$96 -46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 19 $120 −$74 -62%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 19 $300 −$9 -3%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur Apr 19 $573 +$72 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 32¢ $51 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 95¢ $87 7m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $102 10m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $78 13m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Baltimore Orioles 88¢ $84 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $49 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 54¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 53¢ $52 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $157 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 49¢ $23 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $24 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 5h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 10¢ $2 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL Atlanta Braves 69¢ $67 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 75¢ $74 20h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 20h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 25¢ $20 20h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 31¢ $10 20h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $101 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 21h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL Atlanta Braves 83¢ $78 21h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $50 22h
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 20¢ $74 63d
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 43¢ $160 63d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 15¢ $164 63d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 27¢ $303 63d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.12 · official $155.81 · 626 history records