Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc495…285f
crypto · 1683 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$694 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$694 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$694
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1483 / 254
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1737 / 1683
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day101.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1737 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$559
7 days−$495
14 days−$678
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$4 -207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -5220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$5 -210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$6 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$7 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -518%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 696 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 40% -15.0%
≤30d 1737 +0.9% -8.8% 85% 37% -12.4%
≤90d 1737 +0.9% -8.8% 85% 37% -12.4%
all 1737 +0.9% -8.8% 85% 37% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover101.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 37% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 12% -20.8%
15% -25.5% 4% -28.4%
20% -32.8% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records