Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc495…f2f3
crypto · 15 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$6 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$14
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 44% −$3
other 40% +$8
sports 15% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 76¢ $2 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 45% +12.8%
≤30d 11 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 45% +12.8%
≤90d 11 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 45% +12.8%
all 11 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 45% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 45% +12.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 45% +2.0%
15% -10.1% 36% -7.8%
20% -18.9% 27% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.67 · official $13.67 (match) · 39 history records