Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc497…c184 weather 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%115W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$10
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 94 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 1% -9.4%
all 129 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -19.6% 4% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 4% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses115 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage116d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 27? Jun 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 21 Jun 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 4? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 4? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 29? May 30 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 27? May 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 25? May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 24? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on May 23? May 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 22? May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 17? May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 15? May 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 14? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 13? May 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12? May 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 11? May 12 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $53 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $53 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $53 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $53 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $44 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $53 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $53 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $53 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $53 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $53 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $53 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $53 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $53 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $53 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $53 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $53 17d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $52 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $52 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $52 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $52 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.97 · official $52.97 (match) · 260 history records