Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc499…f793 other 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$13,052 (-7%) realized −$14,950 · open +$1,898
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate61%129W / 83L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$911per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$13,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$727
7 days+$3,611
14 days+$3,694
30 days+$4,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$3,366
crypto 29% −$7,758
sports 28% +$3,713
tech 4% −$678
politics 3% +$162
world 2% −$3,283
economics 1% +$16
culture 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.1% -11.4% 81% 22% -0.6%
≤30d 52 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 27% +0.4%
≤90d 75 -5.0% -14.1% 61% 24% -13.3%
all 212 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 25% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 25% -15.8%
10% -21.8% 16% -23.9%
15% -29.4% 10% -31.2%
20% -36.3% 7% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$584) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$347 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$13,424
Realized−$14,950
Unrealized+$1,898
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses129 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions7
Markets (closed)212 / 220
History coverage260d
Avg bet$911
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $8,066 $9,685 +$1,619 (+20%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots Yes 89¢ 100¢ $2,328 $2,613 +$285 (+12%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $672 $678 +$7 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $248 $228 −$20 (-8%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $173 $179 +$6 (+3%)
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $174 +$71 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5,966 +$227 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$3 -15%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots Jun 26 $31 −$26 -86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ shots Jun 25 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,005 +$201 +20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$28 +27%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,004 +$148 +15%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $500 +$13 +3%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,001 +$18 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $43 −$26 -60%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10,137 +$8,284 +82%
Harry Kane: 1+ shots Jun 23 $1,305 +$23 +2%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5,911 −$5,901 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,005 +$170 +8%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots Jun 23 $171 +$9 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3,236 +$157 +5%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$19 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $194 +$19 +10%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$45 +45%
Dani Olmo: 1+ shots Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$18 -89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $130 +$28 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $213 +$89 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -85%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $25 +$2 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $120 +$82 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 56m
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots SELL Yes $2 56m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 57m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots SELL Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $157 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots SELL Yes 98¢ $35 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots SELL Yes 98¢ $11 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots SELL Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,911 2h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots BUY Yes 89¢ $9 2h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots BUY Yes 89¢ $2,386 2h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $73 3h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 96¢ $12 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $123 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $123 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $123 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $123 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $73 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $960 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $5,006 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,423.53 · official $13,422.30 (match) · 855 history records