Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc49b…0e51 crypto 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-10%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.6% -28.2% 55% 55% -24.9%
≤30d 11 -20.6% -28.2% 55% 55% -24.9%
≤90d 11 -20.6% -28.2% 55% 55% -24.9%
all 11 -20.6% -28.2% 55% 55% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 55% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 36% -32.1%
15% -41.3% 9% -38.6%
20% -47.1% 9% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records