Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc49b…02c5 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$2
other 19% +$1
politics 3% $0
sports 3% −$2
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 7% -9.0%
all 24 +0.2% -9.3% 54% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $44 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 26 $8 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $12 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $44 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $34 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $2 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records