Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc49d…516d crypto 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,841 (-4%) realized −$3,864 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%116W / 124L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$484est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$1,012
14 days+$1,012
30 days+$1,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$2,641
sports 35% −$1,013
other 14% −$2,641
world 2% +$1,901
culture 1% +$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +91.7% +73.4% 60% 60% +82.6%
≤30d 11 +49.5% +35.3% 55% 45% +27.9%
≤90d 103 -2.1% -11.4% 49% 46% -14.5%
all 240 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 46% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% -13.1%
10% -19.1% 43% -21.4%
15% -26.9% 35% -29.0%
20% -34.1% 30% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$239 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized−$3,864
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses116 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$484
Open positions6
Markets (closed)240 / 255
History coverage128d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $122 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $97 $112 +$15 (+15%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 34¢ 63¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+85%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $77 −$48 (-38%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 20¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$214 +168%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$34 -33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $256 −$236 -92%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $314 +$688 +219%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $193 +$380 +197%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $513 +$8 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $103 −$2 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $313 +$329 +105%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $165 +$148 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $417 −$410 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $880 −$579 -66%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 19 $509 +$96 +19%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $1,070 −$1,052 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $332 −$327 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $439 −$324 -74%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $300 +$210 +70%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $439 +$260 +59%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Apr 17 $250 −$27 -11%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Apr 17 $250 −$23 -9%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $601 −$601 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 16 $833 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 16 $875 +$259 +30%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 16 $1,604 −$568 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 16 $520 −$511 -98%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $963 −$672 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 16 $435 −$316 -73%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 16 $250 +$189 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 15 $300 +$257 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $740 −$22 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 15 $150 −$141 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 15 $200 +$212 +106%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $403 −$371 -92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1,100 −$405 -37%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $350 +$152 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $250 −$98 -39%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $400 +$143 +36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $500 −$28 -6%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $1,707 +$417 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1,548 +$554 +36%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $420 −$348 -83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $250 −$38 -15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $430 +$122 +28%
Sabres vs. Blackhawks Apr 14 $400 +$112 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 14 $50 −$35 -70%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $300 −$32 -11%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 14 $300 −$12 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will A BUY 24¢ $97 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 20 BUY 34¢ $143 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 37¢ $127 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 14¢ $71 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 11¢ $46 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $51 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $48 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $67 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $20 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Sco BUY 32¢ $78 5d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $573 5d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $193 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 31¢ $314 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $310 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $259 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $211 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $254 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $95 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $101 21d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $128 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.44 · official $667.38 · 659 history records