Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a1…d4d1 crypto 1118 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$444 (-10%) realized −$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%330W / 582L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$57
14 days+$64
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 -19.6% -27.3% 23% 23% -7.3%
≤30d 912 -8.0% -16.7% 36% 36% -5.9%
≤90d 912 -8.0% -16.7% 36% 36% -5.9%
all 912 -8.0% -16.7% 36% 36% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 36% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 36% -14.9%
15% -32.0% 35% -23.2%
20% -38.6% 30% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses330 / 582
Open positions0
Markets (closed)912 / 1118
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 912 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$9 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2184 history records