Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a1…1b46 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+10%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$159
sports 24% +$67
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
≤30d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
≤90d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
all 7 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 43% -22.2%
10% -10.6% 43% -29.6%
15% -19.3% 43% -36.4%
20% -27.2% 43% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$91 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $94 +$147 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $168 −$67 -40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $67 +$93 +139%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $161 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $67 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $30 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $2.00 · 20 history records