Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C4 0xc4a1…b214 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,171 (-60%) realized −$3,183 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$525per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$483
14 days−$483
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$3,099
other 26% −$72
sports 7% −$355
crypto 4% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.7% -32.8% 17% 17% -41.1%
≤30d 6 -25.7% -32.8% 17% 17% -41.1%
≤90d 6 -25.7% -32.8% 17% 17% -41.1%
all 8 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 12% -78.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 12% -78.0%
10% -50.8% 0% -80.1%
15% -55.6% 0% -82.1%
20% -59.9% 0% -83.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$515 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized−$3,183
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage600d
Avg bet$525
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $250 $278 +$28 (+11%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $250 $234 −$16 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $362 −$355 -98%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $151 −$4 -3%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $193 +$23 +12%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $195 −$44 -23%
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $235 −$17 -7%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $255 −$85 -33%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 06 $2,646 −$2,646 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $700 −$453 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 36¢ $362 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $147 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $216 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $151 25h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $151 25h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $195 6d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $193 6d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $218 6d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $170 6d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $235 9d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $255 9d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $254 9d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $255 9d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY No 10¢ $247 599d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $247 599d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $700 599d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY No 23¢ $300 599d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY No 37¢ $600 599d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY No 39¢ $1,500 599d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.10 · official $512.10 (match) · 19 history records