Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc4a2…7d30 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$140 (+19%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$25
14 days+$30
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$126
other 48% +$7
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.8% -0.7% 40% 40% -0.3%
≤30d 19 +32.3% +19.7% 74% 53% +12.6%
≤90d 24 +20.3% +8.9% 67% 46% +7.4%
all 24 +20.3% +8.9% 67% 46% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 46% +7.4%
10% -1.6% 46% -2.9%
15% -11.1% 42% -12.2%
20% -19.8% 38% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage81d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $40 −$1 -2%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$23 +114%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $31 −$25 -81%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $31 −$2 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $121 +$29 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$10 -47%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $36 +$64 +180%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $128 +$4 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $20 +$19 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $25 +$18 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$11 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5 Apr 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $43 −$24 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over $6 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $31 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $29 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 27¢ $11 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $26 12d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $36 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 15d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $56 16d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $55 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $64 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $64 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $64 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $10 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 32¢ $9 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 39¢ $5 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 26¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records