Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4a6…53f7 other 923 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%920W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$7
sports 43% +$10
politics 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 373 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 563 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.1%
all 923 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.88 per $1 lost it wins $7.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses920 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)923 / 923
History coverage129d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 923 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
João Félix: 4+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Rúben Neves: 2+ shots on target Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Vasilev vs. Visker: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Zanolini vs. Barendse: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Naef vs. Garland: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Completed Match: Chan/Tauson vs Perez/Schuurs Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Chan/Tauson vs. Perez/Schuurs: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Tjen vs. McNally: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Gabriela Ruse vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Fomin vs. Gurri: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Luca Zidane: 3+ saves Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Samuel Basallo: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
David Fry: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Maignan: 3+ saves Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Désiré Doué: 2+ shots Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Juan Manuel Sanabria: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Gilson Benchimol: 3+ goals + assists Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Goiás EC 2 - 2 Operário Ferroviário EC? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Stinger" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand F Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Diego Moreira: 4+ shots Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Mohammad Mohebbi: 1+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Smoggy win the Masters London MVP Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks winning after 5 innings? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Robert Gasser: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida to score first vs. Wydad Athletic Club? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Mikel Merino: 2+ assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 3 - 3 RS Berkane? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
João Félix: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Rúben Neves: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will "Water" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Vasilev vs. Visker: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 5h
Zanolini vs. Barendse: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 8h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Naef vs. Garland: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 9h
Chan/Tauson vs. Perez/Schuurs: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Completed Match: Chan/Tauson vs Perez/Schuurs BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GLYPH 100¢ $5 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? BUY New Zealand 100¢ $5 10h
Tjen vs. McNally: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 10h
Gabriela Ruse vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $5 10h
Fomin vs. Gurri: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Luca Zidane: 3+ saves BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Samuel Basallo: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 17h
Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Mike Maignan: 3+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Désiré Doué: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
David Fry: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 18h
Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 42h
Juan Manuel Sanabria: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 45h
Gilson Benchimol: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1853 history records