Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a6…7c62 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 53L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$11
world 15% +$4
other 15% −$1
sports 4% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% +$2
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +4.5% -5.5% 45% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 22% 4% -9.5%
all 76 -3.8% -13.0% 30% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage466d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $262 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $68 −$2 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $180 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$6 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $67 +$5 +7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $30 −$4 -15%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $663 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $664 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $664 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $603 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $63 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $664 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -17%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 09 $4 $0 -9%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +53%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Jun 08 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -62%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 28 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 26 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 21 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 17 $1 $0 -32%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $116 34m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $116 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $105 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $80 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $107 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $78 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $66 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $78 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $54 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $118 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $118 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $62 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records