Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc4a8…5604 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$250 (-23%) realized −$279 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$259
other 10% +$33
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +13.5% +2.6% 50% 39% -33.4%
≤30d 18 +13.5% +2.6% 50% 39% -33.4%
≤90d 18 +13.5% +2.6% 50% 39% -33.4%
all 18 +13.5% +2.6% 50% 39% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 39% -33.4%
10% -7.2% 39% -39.8%
15% -16.1% 33% -45.6%
20% -24.4% 28% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$48 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 64¢ $98 $127 +$28 (+29%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 14¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$39 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $39 −$39 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $202 −$202 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$57 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$6 -20%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $301 +$19 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $142 −$118 -83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $41 +$76 +186%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$28 +276%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$10 +325%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 14¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $39 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $44 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $301 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $24 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 40h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 44h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.76 · official $129.74 (match) · 38 history records