Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a8…5943 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-6%) realized −$73 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$94
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$533
world 27% +$396
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+80.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +194.0% +166.0% 25% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 9 +99.0% +80.0% 33% 22% -11.9%
≤90d 9 +99.0% +80.0% 33% 22% -11.9%
all 9 +99.0% +80.0% 33% 22% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.0% 22% -11.9%
10% +62.8% 22% -20.3%
15% +47.1% 22% -28.0%
20% +32.7% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$92 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage13d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes $125 $119 −$6 (-4%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes $72 $80 +$7 (+10%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes $51 $21 −$31 (-60%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 29 $23 −$16 -68%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $29 +$292 +1013%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 25 $470 −$256 -54%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $167 −$115 -69%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $59 +$151 +257%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $6 −$5 -96%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 18 $405 −$156 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 48m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $72 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $56 1h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY Yes $4 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $125 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $7 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY Yes $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes $0 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $20 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $167 7d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.32 · official $295.32 (match) · 77 history records