trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +194.0% | +166.0% | 25% | 25% | -12.1% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +99.0% | +80.0% | 33% | 22% | -11.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +99.0% | +80.0% | 33% | 22% | -11.9% |
| all | 9 | +99.0% | +80.0% | 33% | 22% | -11.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +80.0% | 22% | -11.9% |
| 10% | +62.8% | 22% | -20.3% |
| 15% | +47.1% | 22% | -28.0% |
| 20% | +32.7% | 22% | -35.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $125 | $119 | −$6 (-4%) |
| Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $72 | $80 | +$7 (+10%) |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $66 | $66 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $51 | $21 | −$31 (-60%) |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $3 | −$3 (-50%) |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $2 | +$1 (+50%) |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+29%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Jun 29 | $23 | −$16 | -68% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 26 | $29 | +$292 | +1013% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | Jun 25 | $470 | −$256 | -54% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | Jun 24 | $167 | −$115 | -69% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 21 | $59 | +$151 | +257% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? | Jun 20 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 19 | $100 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? | Jun 19 | $6 | −$5 | -96% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Jun 18 | $405 | −$156 | -38% |