Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
C4 0xc4a8…246d sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$14,148 (+13%) realized +$14,597 · open −$449
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%43W / 35L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,354per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1,339est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,967
7 days+$3,895
14 days+$18,212
30 days+$11,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5,138
other 8% +$9,496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.5% -6.3% 63% 63% +1.3%
≤30d 75 +29.0% +16.8% 53% 53% +0.2%
≤90d 78 +31.4% +18.9% 55% 55% +3.3%
all 78 +31.4% +18.9% 55% 55% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 55% +3.3%
10% +7.5% 49% -6.6%
15% -2.8% 44% -15.6%
20% -12.4% 36% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,046) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,336 vs −$1,211 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14,597
Unrealized−$449
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses43 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,339
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage31d
Avg bet$1,354
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 30¢ 0¢ $450 $1 −$449 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan Jun 23 $1,879 +$1,071 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $1,170 +$487 +42%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $1,561 +$589 +38%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $1,714 +$586 +34%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $169 +$101 +60%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $494 +$98 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $626 +$142 +23%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $1,072 +$128 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $850 +$1,048 +123%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $971 +$869 +90%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $157 −$154 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $2,834 +$946 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3,150 +$3,150 +100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $609 −$39 -6%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $677 −$671 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,941 +$2,858 +147%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $633 +$303 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $472 −$467 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $994 +$906 +91%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $640 −$634 -99%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 20 $98 −$95 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $97 +$71 +73%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1,147 −$1,147 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2,148 +$237 +11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6,177 −$6,177 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,506 +$6,806 +194%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3,258 +$4,147 +127%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,386 −$3,348 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $256 +$329 +129%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $587 −$587 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,776 +$1,524 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,887 +$5,220 +107%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 11 $503 +$226 +45%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $418 −$418 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $2,103 +$997 +47%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $762 −$762 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $283 −$283 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $997 −$997 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,101 −$2,101 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $2,764 −$2,764 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $291 −$291 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $277 −$277 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $527 −$527 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $331 −$331 -100%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 08 $798 −$798 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,046 +$1,054 +52%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $1,258 +$1,042 +83%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $484 +$1,096 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $459 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 63¢ $940 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 63¢ $940 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 70¢ $1,168 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 68¢ $2 3h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 72¢ $28 9h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 72¢ $15 9h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 72¢ $6 9h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 72¢ $1,512 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 74¢ $1,675 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 72¢ $13 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 72¢ $26 10h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 62¢ $169 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren SELL August Holmgren 100¢ $1,898 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Christopher OConnell 83¢ $494 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 81¢ $626 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY August Holmgren 44¢ $850 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 89¢ $1,072 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 52¢ $971 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena BUY Alex Barrena 19¢ $157 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $2,023 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $690 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $106 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $1,050 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 329 history records