Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4a9…e2f6 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$17
sports 39% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.4% -2.9% 100% 36% -6.0%
≤30d 14 +7.4% -2.9% 100% 36% -6.0%
≤90d 14 +7.4% -2.9% 100% 36% -6.0%
all 14 +7.4% -2.9% 100% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 36% -6.0%
10% -12.2% 7% -15.0%
15% -20.6% 0% -23.2%
20% -28.4% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 98¢ 98¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $196 +$2 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $76 +$3 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $117 58m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands SELL South Africa 100¢ $118 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 100¢ $118 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands SELL South Africa 100¢ $81 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 97¢ $56 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 97¢ $23 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $79 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 97¢ $17 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 97¢ $60 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 100¢ $46 18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $44 39h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $41 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $21 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $19 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $17 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $13 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 88¢ $12 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.74 · official $116.68 (match) · 33 history records