Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc4af…9265 crypto 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$145 (+13%) realized +$146 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%65W / 97L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$14
14 days+$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$72
politics 8% +$5
tech 7% +$24
economics 5% +$29
other 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +36.5% +23.5% 36% 36% +1.3%
≤30d 44 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 34% -8.2%
≤90d 117 +12.1% +1.4% 37% 37% -0.9%
all 162 +16.9% +5.7% 40% 40% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 40% -0.3%
10% -4.4% 38% -9.8%
15% -13.6% 34% -18.5%
20% -22.1% 30% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses65 / 97
Open positions7
Markets (closed)162 / 169
History coverage193d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $89 $94 +$5 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Yes 60¢ 53¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Yes 19¢ 44¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+129%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Yes 48¢ 16¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 13¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +218%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$16 +597%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$17 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$24 +456%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$7 +705%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 26? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22? May 25 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 20? May 22 $3 +$2 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? May 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? May 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18? May 20 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 15? May 16 $4 +$3 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 16 $4 +$26 +702%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $6 +$15 +234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.01 · official $110.01 (match) · 315 history records