Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4b1…d21f crypto 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$708 (-3%) realized −$602 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%113W / 120L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day232.4pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,197
7 days+$986
14 days+$1,210
30 days+$1,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$2,569
sports 40% −$1,026
other 11% +$255
world 3% −$694
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +5.0% -5.0% 48% 43% -5.1%
≤30d 233 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 43% -4.3%
≤90d 233 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 43% -4.3%
all 233 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 43% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 43% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 40% -13.4%
15% -22.0% 38% -21.8%
20% -29.6% 32% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$75 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$738
Realized−$602
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses113 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage7d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day232.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $717 $722 +$5 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 12¢ 2¢ $126 $16 −$111 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $329 +$414 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $294 +$102 +35%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $237 +$550 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $163 +$467 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $157 +$123 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $147 −$74 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $200 −$87 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $183 +$201 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $172 +$201 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $193 +$260 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $262 +$375 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $288 +$393 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$212 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $314 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $408 −$408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $183 +$282 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $179 +$215 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $168 +$235 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $74 +$186 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $99 +$282 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$55 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +57%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $143 −$143 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $654 +$450 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$17 +163%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $13 +$43 +335%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $584 −$127 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$26 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$38 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$39 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$105 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $63 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $67 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $55 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 5m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $164 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.97 · official $800.25 · 1847 history records