Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc4b1…016e sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$89 (-2%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$77
world 35% −$17
crypto 8% $0
other 7% $0
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 3 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 0% -19.2%
≤90d 18 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 0% -11.6%
all 18 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -11.6%
10% -32.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -39.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -45.2% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage81d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 28 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +8%
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5) May 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? May 09 $15 −$1 -6%
Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5) May 08 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 08 $450 +$9 +2%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 07 $449 $0 +0%
Spread: ENPPI (-1.5) Apr 28 $436 +$18 +4%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $435 $0 +0%
Spread: CSyD Macará (-1.5) Apr 27 $329 +$7 +2%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $330 $0 -0%
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) Apr 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 12 $313 $0 +0%
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) Apr 12 $299 +$13 +4%
Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-2.5) Apr 11 $269 +$14 +5%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? Apr 08 $268 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL Yes $25 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY Yes $28 2h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY Yes $29 2h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL Yes $13 3h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL Yes $12 3h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY Yes $20 6h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY Yes $20 6h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes $16 11d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes $18 11d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY Yes $15 11d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY Yes $16 11d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 $12 50d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 $12 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $8 50d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $7 50d
Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5) BUY FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc $32 50d
Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5) BUY FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc $32 50d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Ghazl El Mahalla SC 98¢ $450 52d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 SELL No 98¢ $20 52d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 SELL No 98¢ $430 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records