Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4b1…10f8 sports 75 markets active 3h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$952 (-8%) realized −$952 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%36W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$86
14 days−$193
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$471
other 42% −$412
crypto 4% −$254
finance 4% $0
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 0% -29.2%
≤30d 19 +94.8% +76.2% 47% 26% -19.3%
≤90d 75 +14.2% +3.3% 48% 25% -19.8%
all 75 +14.2% +3.3% 48% 25% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 25% -19.8%
10% -6.6% 19% -27.5%
15% -15.6% 17% -34.5%
20% -23.9% 12% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$68 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$952
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses36 / 39
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage86d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $43 −$5 -11%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $149 +$11 +8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $121 −$119 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $111 +$4 +4%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $212 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $79 +$2 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $20 +$24 +119%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $240 −$240 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $205 +$63 +31%
Kosice: Lilian Marmousez vs Taro Daniel May 27 $238 −$238 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $270 −$55 -20%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 27 $423 +$445 +105%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 27 $148 +$62 +42%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 27 $54 −$15 -28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $203 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $21 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 17 $202 +$112 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $355 +$60 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $447 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $444 −$26 -6%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 08 $219 −$186 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 08 $61 −$55 -89%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $392 +$3 +1%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $3 $0 -13%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 08 $5 $0 -2%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 08 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $355 +$181 +51%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $136 +$33 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $174 −$90 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $30 −$22 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 07 $98 +$39 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 07 $25 +$1 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 07 $335 −$250 -75%
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 07 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $670 −$486 -73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $597 +$160 +27%
Will MrBeast's video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 4? May 06 $338 +$2 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $103 +$9 +9%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $422 +$32 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 06 $179 +$64 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 59¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL David Goffin 73¢ $109 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 63¢ $38 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 63¢ $3 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 63¢ $9 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 71¢ $50 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Terence Atmane 39¢ $38 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 43¢ $32 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 43¢ $5 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 43¢ $4 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 43¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $11 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $11 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 25¢ $28 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $24 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 29¢ $30 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 56¢ $111 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 40¢ $40 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 55¢ $52 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 55¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 43¢ $25 7d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 47¢ $95 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $79 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $20 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $7 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $8 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 86¢ $100 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $10 7d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 29¢ $12 10d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 29¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 484 history records