Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4b1…eb43 crypto 98 markets active 6h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-8%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$36
sports 21% +$34
other 18% −$87
world 7% −$58
politics 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤30d 54 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤90d 59 -26.8% -33.8% 39% 39% -13.4%
all 98 -17.4% -25.2% 42% 41% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 41% -15.1%
10% -32.4% 35% -23.2%
15% -38.9% 29% -30.6%
20% -44.9% 26% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 57
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage161d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$29 +114%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $5 −$2 -45%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw? Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -91%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $50 −$31 -62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $38 +$20 +53%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$11 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -18%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +58%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -84%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$27 +107%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$12 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$38 +185%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$30 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $46 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 18¢ $3 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 8h
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 8h
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 8h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $5 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $33 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $36 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records