Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc4b2…e2c0 sports 129 markets active 3d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$211 (-5%) realized −$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%65W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$186
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$16
other 9% −$195
crypto 2% −$29
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.9% -3.3% 47% 47% -21.6%
≤30d 107 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 55% -9.8%
≤90d 107 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 55% -9.8%
all 129 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% -15.1%
10% -16.9% 49% -23.2%
15% -25.0% 47% -30.6%
20% -32.3% 47% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$28 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses65 / 64
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage118d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $199 −$197 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$18 +69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$15 +58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$16 +61%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $26 −$8 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$32 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $24 +$18 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$80 +391%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$94 +367%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$15 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$20 +78%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $26 +$16 +60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$15 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$34 +68%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 +$113 +111%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 +$48 +94%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$5 -20%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $26 +$15 +60%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $25 +$20 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $25 +$24 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $25 +$17 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $25 +$19 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $25 +$28 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $33 −$33 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $199 3d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance 63¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $25 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 41¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 35¢ $42 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $17 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $26 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $42 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 63¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 63¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $42 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 38¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $57 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 37¢ $26 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $42 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $26 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 52¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $25 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records