Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc4b4…071a crypto 25 markets active 2d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$996per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$15
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -57.1% -61.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -59.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -63.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -66.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,072) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage40d
Avg bet$996
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,064 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,060 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,057 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $2,086 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $2,081 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23? May 24 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $2,075 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 23 $2,071 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? May 22 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 18? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,072 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,072 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,064 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,060 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,057 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY No 0¢ $4 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 25d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,086 33d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,081 33d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,078 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,075 35d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,071 35d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 37d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 39d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.31 · official $5.31 (match) · 40 history records