Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ba…9c9d sports 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-9%) realized −$336 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%84W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day50.8pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$126
14 days−$377
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$239
other 28% −$85
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$7
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -30.5% -37.1% 33% 32% -20.2%
≤30d 227 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 36% -21.9%
≤90d 227 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 36% -21.9%
all 227 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 36% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 36% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 36% -29.4%
15% -38.2% 28% -36.2%
20% -44.3% 26% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses84 / 143
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions54
Markets (closed)227 / 281
History coverage22d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 22¢ $99 $109 +$10 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 60¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+67%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 40¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 60¢ 57¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 24¢ 24¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 75¢ 56¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 26¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-47%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 75¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +291%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 −$9 -81%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$4 -67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$3 +226%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 −$4 -12%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$7 +69%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$14 +297%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $111 −$75 -68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 +$13 +146%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$10 +84%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $96 +$101 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +98%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +146%
Spread: COD Meknès (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $47 +$19 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$7 +48%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $113 −$18 -16%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $2 38m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $2 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.67 · official $387.67 (match) · 1224 history records