Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4bb…748a
politics · 33 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage313d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 76¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Sep 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? Aug 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 09 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% −$1
world 26% +$1
other 21% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $32 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $32 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 30h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $7 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $23 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $5 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $35 4d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 278d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $8 301d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $4 303d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $36 304d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $8 304d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 304d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $8 304d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $8 305d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $8 305d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $8 306d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $8 306d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $40 306d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $44 307d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $44 307d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL No 99¢ $37 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 32 +0.0% -9.5% 34% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.47 · official $32.47 (match) · 81 history records