Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4bc…0926 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$10
other 15% −$9
economics 6% $0
sports 2% +$7
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -1.9% -11.3% 18% 8% -9.6%
all 52 -1.7% -11.0% 17% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 6% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage618d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$4 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $26 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.42 · official $19.42 (match) · 279 history records