Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4c1…6b32 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,851 (+2%) realized +$6,952 · open +$1,899
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%162W / 94L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1,408per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$512est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$23,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,159
7 days−$23,026
14 days−$23,903
30 days−$5,799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,280
sports 21% +$5,481
crypto 1% +$1,654
world 0% +$88
tech 0% +$7
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 50% -20.2%
≤30d 105 +6.4% -3.7% 60% 56% -11.3%
≤90d 256 +7.8% -2.5% 63% 58% -8.5%
all 256 +7.8% -2.5% 63% 58% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 58% -8.5%
10% -11.8% 48% -17.2%
15% -20.4% 36% -25.2%
20% -28.2% 25% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$597 vs −$985 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$23,338
Realized+$6,952
Unrealized+$1,899
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses162 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$512
Open positions5
Markets (closed)256 / 261
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1,408
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $7,074 $9,589 +$2,515 (+36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $1,528 $1,256 −$271 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,050 $967 −$83 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $917 −$83 (-8%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $500 $322 −$178 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8,177 −$8,036 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,078 +$1,333 +22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2,028 +$651 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,017 +$590 +58%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $51 −$32 -62%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$28 -27%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,040 −$691 -66%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $624 +$485 +78%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $514 +$801 +156%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,110 +$3,223 +63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $8,838 −$8,838 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $2,438 −$2,438 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $7,660 −$7,660 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,078 +$1,094 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,087 −$5,013 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,937 +$1,632 +84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,005 +$480 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,074 +$2,808 +91%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $515 −$430 -84%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,035 −$97 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,208 +$5,417 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,044 +$527 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22,339 −$22,339 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $310 −$223 -72%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25,304 +$3,887 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,032 +$468 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,290 +$4,114 +65%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,031 −$859 -42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,024 −$66 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,039 +$857 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $29,024 +$2,852 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,021 +$542 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10,153 +$2,039 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5,197 +$2,089 +40%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $511 +$322 +63%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $101 +$12 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,017 +$299 +29%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $51 +$19 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $60 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,953 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,022 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,915 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,910 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,174 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5,084 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,023 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $443 14h
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $75 14h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $349 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $3,039 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $2,028 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $102 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $514 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $3,039 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1,019 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,017 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $624 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $514 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5,110 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 1¢ $73 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $8,838 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,020 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3,052 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $3,047 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,337.56 · official $23,337.56 (match) · 665 history records