Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc4c1…7324 world 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,475 (+10%) realized +$6,616 · open +$859
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%98W / 52L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$620
7 days+$793
14 days+$1,360
30 days+$1,900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$150
finance 17% +$2,325
politics 13% +$3,117
tech 12% +$925
other 2% −$213
crypto 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.0% +2.2% 54% 46% +15.1%
≤30d 29 +3.9% -6.0% 48% 45% +8.2%
≤90d 72 +10.3% -0.2% 62% 49% -0.2%
all 150 +14.5% +3.6% 65% 41% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 41% -1.7%
10% -6.3% 20% -11.1%
15% -15.3% 13% -19.7%
20% -23.6% 10% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$89 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$10,373
Realized+$6,616
Unrealized+$859
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses98 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)150 / 160
History coverage147d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $2,919 $3,065 +$146 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $1,746 $2,141 +$395 (+23%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $1,875 $1,833 −$42 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,138 $1,189 +$51 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $588 $634 +$46 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 71¢ 99¢ $352 $491 +$139 (+40%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $378 $457 +$80 (+21%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $320 $381 +$61 (+19%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? No 77¢ 70¢ $107 $97 −$10 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $92 $85 −$7 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Jun 17 $95 −$38 -40%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -21%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 17 $192 −$83 -43%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $131 +$13 +10%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $954 +$155 +16%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $231 +$577 +250%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 15 $216 +$31 +14%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $165 +$44 +27%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -53%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $150 +$37 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $527 +$111 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $112 −$34 -30%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 08 $22 −$4 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $78 −$14 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $47 −$18 -39%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $75 +$146 +195%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $634 +$458 +72%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? Jun 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $1,065 +$283 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $1,805 +$285 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $1,096 +$267 +24%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? May 29 $890 +$156 +18%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 29 $334 −$239 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $37 −$6 -16%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 25 $201 −$133 -66%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $212 +$81 +38%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 21 $185 −$28 -15%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May? May 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2026? May 01 $1,091 +$141 +13%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April? May 01 $756 +$454 +60%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? May 01 $121 −$120 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $903 +$193 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $1,004 +$131 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $1,646 +$5 +0%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Apr 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $744 +$71 +10%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 30 $20 +$176 +857%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? Apr 26 $32 −$6 -18%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Apr 25 $354 +$66 +19%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $218 +$123 +56%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $477 −$477 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 20 $824 −$488 -59%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? Apr 17 $259 −$259 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $1,979 +$51 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 12 $643 +$81 +13%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? Apr 11 $75 +$24 +31%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Rutte? Apr 08 $100 −$19 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $46 1h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 1h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 76¢ $37 2h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 75¢ $32 2h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 85¢ $412 5h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 5h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $56 5h
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 5h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $109 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $1,469 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $138 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $268 13h
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $143 13h
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $247 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $209 2d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $93 2d
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 4d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 40¢ $78 5d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 5d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 6d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 78¢ $35 6d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $77 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,372.81 · official $10,376.06 (match) · 1348 history records