Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c3…6afa crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-9%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -41.6% -47.2% 42% 26% -33.4%
≤30d 38 -32.5% -38.9% 47% 39% -20.0%
≤90d 38 -32.5% -38.9% 47% 39% -20.0%
all 38 -32.5% -38.9% 47% 39% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 39% -20.0%
10% -44.8% 24% -27.6%
15% -50.1% 21% -34.6%
20% -55.0% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage14d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records