Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc4c4…6dfd sports 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,031 (-1%) realized −$2,322 · open +$1,291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%135W / 129L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$400est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$25,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$40
other 42% −$3,971
crypto 8% +$1,092
world 2% −$616
finance 1% +$19
economics 0% +$52
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -18.9%
≤30d 88 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 51% -15.7%
≤90d 139 -19.9% -27.5% 44% 42% -16.2%
all 264 -13.1% -21.3% 51% 45% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 45% -14.4%
10% -28.9% 34% -22.6%
15% -35.7% 24% -30.0%
20% -42.0% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$132 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$25,032
Realized−$2,322
Unrealized+$1,291
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses135 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$400
Open positions5
Markets (closed)264 / 269
History coverage162d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $7,466 $8,558 +$1,092 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $5,794 $7,419 +$1,625 (+28%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 66¢ 74¢ $4,652 $5,242 +$589 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5,544 $3,611 −$1,933 (-35%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $285 $202 −$82 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $8,606 −$1,807 -21%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5,642 −$245 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $8,453 −$298 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $779 +$394 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $296 +$430 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $192 +$105 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $405 −$400 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $194 +$211 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $108 +$86 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $77 +$32 +41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $246 −$243 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $199 +$48 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $270 −$266 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$131 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $346 +$92 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $499 +$283 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $294 −$289 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,479 +$293 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $302 +$77 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $72 −$72 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $166 −$94 -56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $795 +$197 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,352 +$255 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $319 −$45 -14%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $179 −$140 -78%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $179 −$122 -68%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $893 −$558 -62%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $508 +$433 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $161 +$37 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$103 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $172 −$170 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $186 +$84 +46%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$25 -92%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $951 −$932 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $246 +$134 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $262 +$139 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $186 +$60 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $216 +$46 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $104 +$82 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $111 +$70 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $267 +$310 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 67¢ $2,674 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2,675 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $2,025 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2,006 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,523 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $608 44h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,975 44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4,060 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $763 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $406 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,173 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $543 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $544 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $34 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $31 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $63 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $316 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $202 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,264 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $261 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,529 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $723 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $727 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $296 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $297 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $91 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $101 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $189 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $405 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,032.13 · official $25,042.33 (match) · 1184 history records