Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c5…3dd9 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$27
politics 26% −$13
sports 20% −$11
crypto 8% $0
world 5% $0
culture 4% −$2
finance 3% −$5
tech 2% −$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 64 -0.9% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 108 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 125 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 107
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage100d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $98 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $226 −$5 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $312 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $56 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,087 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $310 −$2 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $65 1h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $66 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $44 10h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $44 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 20h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $27 21h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 27h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 28h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 36h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $51 36h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $51 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $47 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $52 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.13 · official $42.13 (match) · 477 history records