Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc4c7…7e77 crypto 551 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%526W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$32
14 days−$81
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$69
politics 2% +$6
other 1% +$3
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 547 -1.0% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 547 -1.0% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.3%
all 547 -1.0% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses526 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)547 / 551
History coverage23d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? Up 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 29? Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 29? Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 99¢ $10 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Solana Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.65 · official $44.71 (match) · 1084 history records