Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc4ca…3df3 sports 876 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$380 (+0%) realized +$437 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%868W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,064
7 days−$921
14 days−$855
30 days−$813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$262
other 21% +$1,640
crypto 14% +$354
finance 8% +$194
culture 8% +$102
politics 6% +$67
tech 5% +$83
world 3% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -5.8% -14.8% 94% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 139 -2.7% -11.9% 97% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 442 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 873 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,087) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$335 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$7,875
Realized+$437
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses868 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)873 / 876
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$798
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,134 $1,133 −$2 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $1,134 $1,133 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Uruguay 100¢ 100¢ $1,134 $1,131 −$3 (-0%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,134 $1,124 −$11 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,131 $1,122 −$9 (-1%)
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Egypt 100¢ 99¢ $1,131 $1,119 −$12 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 100¢ 98¢ $1,133 $1,114 −$19 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $146 $0 +0%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,133 +$3 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,078 +$52 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,115 +$13 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $1,084 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $434 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,127 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,113 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,087 +$7 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,093 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,093 +$1 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,117 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,125 +$1 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,120 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,113 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,119 +$4 +0%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,123 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $378 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $418 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,105 +$16 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,110 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY Egypt 100¢ $1,131 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $1,131 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $714 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $416 5h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $1,135 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $1,134 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $135 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $999 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $1,135 5h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY Belgium 100¢ $1,133 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 100¢ $146 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,135 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $4 11h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $90 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1,110 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 99¢ $18 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $1 11h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Japan 100¢ $1,129 23h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $798 35h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $331 35h
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,129 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $1,078 35h
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $1,128 2d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $1,128 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 100¢ $845 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 100¢ $75 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 100¢ $208 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,874.90 · official $7,874.90 (match) · 3500 history records