Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4cb…0e7e other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$138 (+37%) realized +$135 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$103
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.5% -8.1% 33% 33% +27.0%
≤30d 26 +25.1% +13.2% 42% 42% +32.8%
≤90d 28 +16.2% +5.1% 39% 39% +29.4%
all 28 +16.2% +5.1% 39% 39% +29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 39% +29.4%
10% -4.9% 39% +17.0%
15% -14.1% 39% +5.7%
20% -22.5% 36% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$8 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage70d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 53¢ 56¢ $63 $67 +$3 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $24 −$19 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$61 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$10 +106%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $11 +$9 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $7 +$13 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $12 +$111 +956%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 06 $24 +$31 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $4 +$1 +39%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 29 $2 +$3 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 29 $5 +$5 +121%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 29 $28 +$27 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 39m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 11h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.38 · official $65.75 · 237 history records