Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc4cc…15a7 crypto 387 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$884 (+7%) realized +$875 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%225W / 159L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$88
14 days−$307
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$621
sports 7% −$26
world 0% −$18
other 0% −$10
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -20.9% -28.4% 47% 39% -12.3%
≤30d 295 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 43% -5.1%
≤90d 384 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 46% -5.6%
all 384 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 46% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 46% -5.6%
10% -26.9% 30% -14.6%
15% -34.0% 18% -22.8%
20% -40.5% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$875
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses225 / 159
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)384 / 387
History coverage39d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 52¢ 72¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$50 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$25 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $57 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$33 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $108 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$112 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$51 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.36 · official $72.34 · 897 history records