Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4cc…2a5e weather 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,156 (-3%) realized −$2,156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate84%287W / 55L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day99.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$872
7 days−$1,316
14 days−$2,548
30 days−$2,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,917
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -43.4% -48.8% 48% 8% -44.7%
≤30d 308 -9.3% -17.9% 84% 7% -13.1%
≤90d 342 -8.9% -17.5% 84% 8% -12.9%
all 342 -8.9% -17.5% 84% 8% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 8% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 1% -21.2%
15% -32.6% 1% -28.8%
20% -39.2% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$100 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses287 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 313
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$239
Trades / day99.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30? Jun 18 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? Jun 18 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 7? Jun 18 $320 −$320 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 18 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $93 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $543 −$473 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $28 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records