Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc4cf…f92f politics 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 36% −$12
sports 8% −$24
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -4.0% -13.1% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 106 -2.7% -12.0% 8% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage113d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $499 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $246 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $249 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $961 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $456 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $259 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $530 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $241 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $263 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $263 26d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $249 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $249 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 36d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $235 38d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $235 44d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $246 44d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $246 45d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $249 45d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $249 45d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $254 45d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $254 46d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 46d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 46d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $259 46d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $259 47d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 47d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 48d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $234 48d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $234 48d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $194 48d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $194 48d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $219 48d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $219 49d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 331 history records