Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc4cf…5273 other 6 markets active 3d ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$5
world 35% +$10
sports 26% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 4 +3.3% -6.6% 75% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 6 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 0% -7.9%
all 6 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 0% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -7.9%
10% -30.0% 0% -16.7%
15% -36.8% 0% -24.8%
20% -43.0% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage73d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 17 $237 +$6 +3%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $237 +$10 +4%
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) Jun 01 $476 +$29 +6%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? May 31 $481 −$1 -0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 24 $424 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) Apr 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $244 3d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $237 3d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $247 4d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $55 4d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $182 4d
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 94¢ $476 20d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $479 20d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $481 20d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $424 57d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $424 57d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) BUY Athletic Club 3¢ $6 76d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) BUY Athletic Club 3¢ $6 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records